Hanqing Li Hanqing Li 李汉青


A Gaussian shift is an exponential experiment with a quadratic cumulant, but finite-rank exponential approximation is broader. It seeks a low-dimensional statistic whose likelihood coordinates reproduce the original experiment, exactly or with controlled deficiency.

Exact exponential experiments

Definition. An exponential experiment dominated by \(P_0\) has likelihood ratios \[ \frac{\mathrm{d}P_\theta}{\mathrm{d}P_0}(x) = \exp\{\eta(\theta)^\top T(x)-A(\theta)\}, \] where \(T:\mathcal X\to\mathbb R^k\) and \[ A(\theta) = \log E_0e^{\eta(\theta)^\top T}. \]

Proposition. The statistic \(T\) is sufficient, and the experiment is Blackwell equivalent to the family of distributions of \(T\).

Proof. The likelihood factorizes into a function of \(T(x)\) times the base density. Apply the factorization theorem and the kernel characterization of sufficiency. \(\square\)

Approximate likelihood factorization

Theorem. Suppose an experiment \(\mathcal E=\{P_\theta\}\) and a statistic \(T\) admit approximating laws \(\widetilde P_\theta\) such that:

  1. \(\mathrm{d}\widetilde P_\theta/\mathrm{d}P_0\) is measurable with respect to \(T\);
  2. \[ \sup_{\theta\in\Theta} \|P_\theta-\widetilde P_\theta\|_{\mathrm{TV}} \leq\varepsilon. \]

Then the deficiency from the reduced statistic experiment to the original experiment is at most \(\varepsilon\), and \[ \Delta(\mathcal E,T\mathcal E)\leq\varepsilon. \]

Proof. Since \(\widetilde P_\theta\) has a \(T\)-measurable likelihood ratio, \(T\) is sufficient for the approximating experiment \(\widetilde{\mathcal E}\). Thus \(\Delta(\widetilde{\mathcal E},T\widetilde{\mathcal E})=0\). The identity kernel gives \(\Delta(\mathcal E,\widetilde{\mathcal E})\leq\varepsilon\), and data processing gives the same bound between their statistic experiments. Apply the triangle inequality. \(\square\)

One can replace total-variation control by Hellinger or KL bounds and then convert metrics. Uniform control of a log-likelihood residual is useful only if it holds on a high-probability set and controls normalization; a pointwise \(o_p(1)\) remainder need not imply small deficiency.

Finite-rank likelihood approximation

Definition. A rank-\(k\) approximation has \[ \log\frac{\mathrm{d}P_\theta}{\mathrm{d}P_0} = \eta(\theta)^\top T_k-A_k(\theta)+R_{\theta,k}, \] where \(R_{\theta,k}\) is uniformly negligible in a metric strong enough to compare the induced probability measures.

The coordinates of \(T_k\) span the informative part of the likelihood-ratio family. If \(k=k_n\) grows, the approximation bias decreases while the complexity of the reduced experiment increases.

Square-root density projection

Because Hellinger distance is an \(L_2\)-distance between square-root densities, one may approximate \[ \sqrt{p_\theta/p_0}-1 \] in a finite-dimensional subspace of \(L_2(P_0)\). If the approximation error is uniformly \(\varepsilon\), the corresponding Hellinger error is \(\varepsilon\). This is often more stable than directly approximating unbounded log likelihoods.

Gaussian shifts as exponential families

Example. In the Gaussian shift with canonical observation \(\Delta\sim N(Ih,I)\), \[ \log\frac{\mathrm{d}P_h}{\mathrm{d}P_0} = h^\top\Delta-\frac12h^\top Ih. \] Thus \(T=\Delta\), natural parameter \(\eta(h)=h\), and cumulant \(A(h)=\frac12h^\top Ih\). LAN says that a regular local experiment is asymptotically this exponential family.

Curved exponential families

If \(\eta(\theta)\) lies on a lower-dimensional smooth manifold in \(\mathbb R^k\), the model is a curved exponential family. The tangent space of the curve determines first-order information, while its curvature affects higher-order likelihood and risk approximations.

Random and nonquadratic cumulants

In LAMN experiments the conditional cumulant is \[ A_J(h)=\frac12h^\top Jh \] with random \(J\) revealed as ancillary information. In Poisson experiments, \[ A(\eta)=\int(e^\eta-1)\,\mathrm{d}\mu_0, \] which is nonquadratic. Both fit the exponential-likelihood form, but only the first is conditionally Gaussian.

Approximation and decision transfer

A successful finite-rank approximation must end with a decision statement: bounded-loss risks in the original and reduced experiments differ by at most the established deficiency. Merely observing that a likelihood “looks exponential” does not prove that procedures can be transferred uniformly over parameters.