Hanqing Li Hanqing Li 李汉青


Random walks accumulate i.i.d. spatial increments; renewal processes invert partial sums of positive waiting times. The same regenerative structure yields laws of large numbers, renewal equations, occupation formulas, and limiting age distributions. These ideas reappear whenever a stochastic process restarts at random cycle boundaries.

Random walks and passage times

Definition. For i.i.d. increments \(\xi_1,\xi_2,\ldots\), \[ S_0=0,\qquad S_n=\sum_{k=1}^n\xi_k \] is a random walk. For \(a\in\mathbb R\), its first passage time is \[ \tau_a=\inf\{n\ge0:S_n\ge a\}. \]

Proposition (drift classification). If \(\mathbb E|\xi_1|<\infty\) and \(m=\mathbb E\xi_1\ne0\), then \[ \frac{S_n}{n}\to m\quad\text{almost surely}. \] Hence \(S_n\to+\infty\) when \(m>0\) and \(S_n\to-\infty\) when \(m<0\); every bounded set is then visited only finitely often.

Proof. This is the strong law of large numbers. If \(m>0\), eventually \(S_n\ge mn/2\), and similarly for negative drift.

Theorem (simple symmetric walk). The simple symmetric random walk is recurrent on \(\mathbb Z\). In contrast, the simple symmetric walk on \(\mathbb Z^d\) is transient for \(d\ge3\).

Proof outline. In one dimension, \[ P(S_{2n}=0)=2^{-2n}\binom{2n}{n} \sim\frac1{\sqrt{\pi n}}, \] so \(\sum_nP(S_n=0)=\infty\), and the Green-function criterion gives recurrence. In \(d\) dimensions, Fourier inversion writes \[ P(S_n=0) =(2\pi)^{-d}\int_{[-\pi,\pi]^d}\varphi(t)^n\,\mathrm{d} t. \] Near zero, \(1-\varphi(t)\asymp\|t\|^2\), giving \(P(S_n=0)\asymp n^{-d/2}\). The series diverges for \(d=1,2\) and converges for \(d\ge3\).

Renewal processes

Definition. Let \(Y_1,Y_2,\ldots\) be i.i.d. positive waiting times with distribution \(F\). Define renewal epochs and the counting process by \[ T_0=0,\qquad T_n=\sum_{k=1}^nY_k, \qquad N(t)=\max\{n:T_n\le t\}. \] The renewal function and renewal measure are \[ m(t)=\mathbb EN(t),\qquad U(B)=\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}P(T_n\in B). \]

Theorem (renewal strong law). If \(0<\mu=\mathbb EY_1<\infty\), then \[ \frac{N(t)}t\to\frac1\mu \qquad\text{almost surely}. \]

Proof. Since \(Y_k>0\), \(N(t)\to\infty\) almost surely. The inverse inequalities \[ T_{N(t)}\le t<T_{N(t)+1} \] imply \[ \frac{T_{N(t)}}{N(t)} \le\frac t{N(t)} < \frac{T_{N(t)+1}}{N(t)+1} \frac{N(t)+1}{N(t)}. \] The strong law gives both random-subsequence ratios of \(T_n/n\) converging to \(\mu\), while \((N(t)+1)/N(t)\to1\). Squeezing gives \(t/N(t)\to\mu\).

Theorem (elementary renewal theorem). Under the same assumptions, \[ \frac{m(t)}t=\frac{\mathbb EN(t)}t\longrightarrow\frac1\mu. \]

Proof outline. The almost-sure limit alone does not justify taking expectations. For the upper bound, truncate waiting times below by a positive constant and compare \(N(t)\) to a geometric-block count with exponential tails, yielding uniform integrability of \(N(t)/t\). Alternatively, apply Wald's identity to \(T_{N(t)+1}\): \[ \mu\,\mathbb E[N(t)+1]=\mathbb ET_{N(t)+1}, \] control the overshoot, and use truncation when the second moment is unavailable. The lower bound follows from \(T_{N(t)}\le t\) and a stopped-sum argument. Together they yield the limit \(1/\mu\).

The renewal equation

Theorem. The renewal function satisfies \[ m(t)=F(t)+\int_{[0,t]}m(t-x)F(\mathrm{d} x). \] More generally, the solution of \[ z(t)=g(t)+\int_{[0,t]}z(t-x)F(\mathrm{d} x) \] is \[ z(t)=\int_{[0,t]}g(t-x)U(\mathrm{d} x) =\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}\int_{[0,t]}g(t-x)F^{*n}(\mathrm{d} x), \] whenever the series is well defined.

Proof. Since \[ m(t)=\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}P(T_n\le t) =\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}F^{*n}(t), \] separate the \(n=1\) term and use \(F^{*(n+1)}=F^{*n}*F\) to obtain the equation. Iterating the general equation produces the convolution series; nonnegativity or dominated convergence justifies passage to the limit.

The key renewal theorem

Theorem. Suppose \(F\) is nonarithmetic, \(\mu<\infty\), and \(g\) is directly Riemann integrable on \([0,\infty)\). Then \[ \int_{[0,t]}g(t-x)U(\mathrm{d} x) \longrightarrow \frac1\mu\int_0^\infty g(x)\,\mathrm{d} x. \]

Proof outline. First prove the claim for interval indicators using the renewal theorem for increments, \[ U((t,t+h])\to\frac h\mu. \] Step functions follow by linearity. Upper and lower Darboux sums approximate a directly Riemann integrable \(g\), while its summable tail controls distant renewal epochs uniformly. The nonarithmetic assumption prevents persistent periodic oscillations; in the arithmetic case there is a lattice analogue.

Age, residual life, and length bias

Definition. At time \(t\), define the age and residual life \[ A(t)=t-T_{N(t)},\qquad R(t)=T_{N(t)+1}-t. \]

Corollary (equilibrium excess life). If \(F\) is nonarithmetic and \(\mu<\infty\), then \[ P(R(t)>x)\longrightarrow \frac1\mu\int_x^\infty P(Y_1>u)\,\mathrm{d} u. \] If \(\mathbb EY_1^2<\infty\), the limiting mean residual life is \[ \frac{\mathbb EY_1^2}{2\mathbb EY_1}. \]

Proof. A renewal at time \(s\le t\) contributes to \(\{R(t)>x\}\) exactly when its following waiting time exceeds \(t+x-s\). Thus \[ P(R(t)>x) =\int_{[0,t]}\overline F(t+x-s)U(\mathrm{d} s). \] Apply the key renewal theorem to \(g(u)=\overline F(u+x)\). Integrating the limiting tail over \(x\) and using Tonelli gives \[ \int_0^\infty \frac1\mu\int_x^\infty\overline F(u)\,\mathrm{d} u\,\mathrm{d} x = \frac1\mu\int_0^\infty u\overline F(u)\,\mathrm{d} u = \frac{\mathbb EY_1^2}{2\mu}. \]

The larger second moment in the numerator is the inspection paradox: observing at a typical time preferentially selects long renewal intervals.

Renewal rewards

Theorem (renewal-reward law). Let \((Y_k,R_k)\) be i.i.d. cycle lengths and rewards with \(Y_k>0\), \(\mathbb EY_1=\mu<\infty\), and \(\mathbb E|R_1|<\infty\). Then \[ \frac1t\sum_{k=1}^{N(t)}R_k \longrightarrow \frac{\mathbb ER_1}{\mathbb EY_1} \qquad\text{almost surely}. \]

Proof. Factor the ratio: \[ \frac1t\sum_{k=1}^{N(t)}R_k = \left(\frac1{N(t)}\sum_{k=1}^{N(t)}R_k\right) \frac{N(t)}t. \] The strong law along the random subsequence gives the first factor converging to \(\mathbb ER_1\); the renewal strong law gives the second converging to \(1/\mu\).

Regenerative Markov chains, queueing systems, reliability models, and occupation-time calculations all reduce long-run averages to this expected reward per expected cycle length.