Hanqing Li Hanqing Li 李汉青


Order statistics provide exact finite-sample distribution theory, while quantiles are nonlinear functionals whose first-order behavior is governed by the density at the target probability. Central quantiles have root-\(n\) Gaussian limits; extreme order statistics live on a different scale.

Quantile conventions

Definition. For a distribution function \(F\) and \(p\in(0,1)\), the left-continuous generalized inverse is \[ q_p=F^{-1}(p)=\inf\{x:F(x)\ge p\}. \] It satisfies \[ F(q_p)\ge p,\qquad F(q_p-)\le p. \] The empirical quantile is \(\hat q_p=F_n^{-1}(p)\).

If \(F\) is strictly increasing and continuous at \(q_p\), then \(F(q_p)=p\) and the quantile is unique. At an atom or a flat portion, inverse conventions matter and regular root-\(n\) theory can fail.

Exact law of an order statistic

Distribution of \(X_{k:n}\). Let \(X_1,\ldots,X_n\) be i.i.d. with continuous distribution function \(F\), and let \[ X_{1:n}\le\cdots\le X_{n:n}. \] Then \[ P(X_{k:n}\le x) =\sum_{j=k}^n\binom njF(x)^j\{1-F(x)\}^{n-j}, \] and \[ F(X_{k:n})\sim\operatorname{Beta}(k,n+1-k). \]

Proof. The event \(X_{k:n}\le x\) occurs exactly when at least \(k\) observations do not exceed \(x\). Their count is \(\operatorname{Binomial}\{n,F(x)\}\), giving the first formula. By the probability integral transform, \(U_i=F(X_i)\) are i.i.d. uniform. Therefore \(F(X_{k:n})=U_{k:n}\), whose density is \[ \frac{n!}{(k-1)!(n-k)!} u^{k-1}(1-u)^{n-k}, \] the beta density.

Corollary (density). If \(F\) has density \(f\), then \[ f_{k:n}(x) =\frac{n!}{(k-1)!(n-k)!} F(x)^{k-1}\{1-F(x)\}^{n-k}f(x). \]

Joint law and spacings

Joint density of two order statistics. For \(i\lt j\) and \(x\lt y\), \[ \begin{aligned} f_{i,j:n}(x,y) &= \frac{n!}{(i-1)!(j-i-1)!(n-j)!}\\ &\quad{}\times F(x)^{i-1} \{F(y)-F(x)\}^{j-i-1} \{1-F(y)\}^{n-j} f(x)f(y). \end{aligned} \]

Proof. Choose which \(i-1\) observations fall below \(x\), which \(j-i-1\) fall between \(x\) and \(y\), and which \(n-j\) exceed \(y\); place one observation in each infinitesimal interval \(\mathrm{d}x,\mathrm{d}y\). Multiplying multinomial probabilities and dividing by \(\mathrm{d}x\,\mathrm{d}y\) gives the density.

For uniform observations, the \(n+1\) spacings \[ U_{1:n},\ U_{2:n}-U_{1:n},\ldots, U_{n:n}-U_{n-1:n},\ 1-U_{n:n} \] have a \(\operatorname{Dirichlet}(1,\ldots,1)\) law. Equivalently, they are normalized independent exponential variables. This representation is useful for simultaneous quantile bands and extreme spacings.

Consistency of sample quantiles

Quantile consistency. If \(q_p\) is the unique \(p\)-quantile and \(F\) is strictly below \(p\) to its left and strictly above \(p\) to its right, then \[ \hat q_p\to q_p\quad\text{almost surely}. \]

Proof. For every \(\varepsilon>0\), \[ F(q_p-\varepsilon)\lt p \lt F(q_p+\varepsilon). \] The Glivenko-Cantelli theorem gives uniform almost-sure convergence \(F_n\to F\). Eventually, \[ F_n(q_p-\varepsilon)\lt p \lt F_n(q_p+\varepsilon), \] which forces \(q_p-\varepsilon\lt\hat q_p\le q_p+\varepsilon\).

Bahadur representation and quantile CLT

Bahadur representation. Suppose \(F\) is differentiable near \(q_p\), \(f\) is continuous there, and \(f(q_p)>0\). Then \[ \hat q_p-q_p =\frac{p-F_n(q_p)}{f(q_p)} +o_p(n^{-1/2}). \]

Proof outline. First, binomial tail bounds at \(q_p\pm M/\sqrt n\) show \(\hat q_p-q_p=O_p(n^{-1/2})\). On that shrinking neighborhood, \[ F(\hat q_p)-F(q_p) =f(q_p)(\hat q_p-q_p)+o_p(n^{-1/2}). \] Stochastic equicontinuity of the empirical process over intervals of length \(O_p(n^{-1/2})\) gives \[ (F_n-F)(\hat q_p)-(F_n-F)(q_p)=o_p(n^{-1/2}). \] Since \(F_n(\hat q_p)=p+O(n^{-1})\) under the generalized-inverse convention, rearrangement yields the representation.

Quantile central limit theorem. Under the same assumptions, \[ \sqrt n(\hat q_p-q_p) \rightsquigarrow N\!\left(0,\frac{p(1-p)}{f(q_p)^2}\right). \]

Proof. The variable \(nF_n(q_p)\) is \(\operatorname{Binomial}(n,p)\), so \[ \sqrt n\{F_n(q_p)-p\} \rightsquigarrow N\{0,p(1-p)\}. \] Substitute into the Bahadur representation and apply Slutsky.

Joint quantile limits

Joint quantile central limit theorem. For \(0\lt p_1\lt\cdots\lt p_k\lt1\), assume \(f(q_{p_j})>0\) and continuity at each quantile. Then \[ \sqrt n\bigl(\hat q_{p_j}-q_{p_j}\bigr)_{j=1}^k \rightsquigarrow N(0,\Sigma), \] where \[ \Sigma_{ij} =\frac{\min(p_i,p_j)-p_ip_j} {f(q_{p_i})f(q_{p_j})}. \]

Proof. Apply the Bahadur representation componentwise. The indicator vector \[ \bigl(1_{\{X\le q_{p_j}\}}-p_j\bigr)_{j=1}^k \] has covariance \(\min(p_i,p_j)-p_ip_j\). The multivariate central limit theorem and the diagonal scaling by \(1/f(q_{p_j})\) give the result.

Exact distribution-free confidence intervals

Because \[ P\{X_{r:n}\le q_p\le X_{s:n}\} =P\{r\le N_p\le s-1\}, \qquad N_p\sim\operatorname{Binomial}(n,p), \] indices \(r,s\) can be chosen from binomial tails to obtain an exact confidence interval for \(q_p\), with no density estimate. Exact equality may require randomization; otherwise coverage is conservative.

Central, intermediate, and extreme order statistics

If \(k_n/n\to p\in(0,1)\), \(X_{k_n:n}\) is a central order statistic and has the root-\(n\) quantile limit above. If \(k_n\to\infty\) but \(k_n/n\to0\), it is intermediate and estimates a moving tail quantile. If \(k\) stays fixed, \(X_{n-k+1:n}\) is extreme; its normalization depends on the tail domain of attraction and is generally not root-\(n\) Gaussian. Treating an extreme quantile as an ordinary central quantile is therefore a change of asymptotic regime, not a harmless extrapolation.